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Though it's a stretch to label any House Of The Dragon character's ending "happy," season 2 has unquestionably tarnished one of the most favorable Targaryen fates George R.R. Martin has revealed. A brutal civil war, The Dance Of The Dragons leaves few major characters alive—let alone with favorable results. The war drastically reduces House Targaryen's power, virtually kills their dragons, and decimates her house.
Laenor Velaryon's survival twist can be regarded as a happy ending since he runs to Essos and lives under cover of anonymity, but Baela Targaryen is among the most lucky characters the book features following war. But a conversation between Baela and Corlys in House Of The Dragon season 2, episode 5 fundamentally changes her future perspective. Unlike the events described in Fire & Blood, Baela's rejection of Corlys' wish for her to inherit Driftmark paints a far darker picture than first expected.
As Baela says in the second House of the Dragon season, episode five, "I am blood and fire. Driftmarks must pass through sea and salt. Not sailing on a ship, her heart and dreams are in dragonriding, flying through the heavens, and embracing a fiery spirit. Baela embodies the way of a Targaryen dragonrider by preferring to dedicate her future to patrolling the skies on Moondancer and having limited knowledge of maritime events. This inclination reflects her parents, Laena and Daemon, both committed to their roles as Targaryen royalty on Dragonback, against the seafaring customs of Driftmark.
Baela doesn't reject her Velaryon background or criticize her grandfather's passions. She turns down Corlys' offer, though, knowing she is unsuited as Lady of the Tides. Baela would have been the perfect successor to Corlys at Driftmark had she grown to enjoy sailing over flying. Moreover, given her betrothal to Prince Jacaerys Velaryon, the heir to the Iron Throne, Baela's priorities are maintaining House Targaryen's legacy and following the customs of those with fire and blood coursed through their veins.
Fire & Blood sadly shows us that Baela's reality is not this hopeful ending. She does, indeed, spend her future at Driftmark, but maybe more sadly as the wife of the Lord of the Tides, not the reigning Lady of the Tides. Prince Jacaerys Velaryon drowns in the Battle of the Gullet during the Dance Of The Dragons. Later at Dragonstone, King Aegon II Targaryen captures Baela. Aegon III Targaryen, Rhaenyra's young son, climbs the Iron Throne following the war. Moondancer's death leaves Bela without a dragon.
Though she despises a life at Driftmark in House of the Dragon, this is her unfortunate reality. She runs from King's Landing and seeks cover at Driftmark when Aegon III's regents decide Belsa must wed for political advantage. There she marries her uncle Alyn Velaryon, who succeeds Corlys as Lord of the Tides. Fire & Blood just covers the first five years following the Dance of the Dragons, but Belsa stays at Driftmark mostly and bears two children with Alyn.