Moana 2: Is This Disney's Big Thanksgiving Box Office Comeback?
Moana 2 Projected to Make a Splash: A $100M+ Thanksgiving Debut?
Get ready for a potential Disney blockbuster, folks! Moana 2 is projected to have an absolutely massive opening weekend! This isn't some small movie; that Thanksgiving weekend is predicted to bring over $100 million at the box office! Originally planned as a Disney+ series, it is now a full-length feature-length Animated Movie musical; and its cast brings the original stars back – Auliʻi Cravalho as Moana and Dwayne Johnson as Maui in a brand-new adventure that takes place exactly three years after the first one which really impacted cinema in 2016!
Early predictions (from Quorum, via Deadline) suggest a 3-day weekend gross somewhere between $75 and $82 million, which, even by itself, would likely make it another huge hit! But here’s where it gets really nuts. Those 5-day projections easily pass $100 million, exceeding that record set by Frozen in 2013 ($93.5 million)! That's seriously impressive for a Thanksgiving Wednesday release – because this kind of initial impact rarely occurs, making this a serious surprise; however it sounds increasingly likely now that it really will occur, further strengthening confidence and expectations toward the film's later commercial performance.
Disney's Animated Drought: Can Moana 2 Turn Things Around?
Disney's animated movies haven't exactly set the world on fire lately. That record-breaking Frozen II (2019), the highest-grossing animated film, was a long time ago now, especially considering other films, such as Inside Out 2 already replaced it! That post-Frozen II era has a lot of very, very questionable titles; a truly surprising and disappointing outcome. Check these figures (budgets versus earnings):
- Raya and the Last Dragon (2021): Budget ~$100 million, Opening Weekend $8.5 million, Worldwide $130.4 million
- Encanto (2021): Budget ~$135 million, Opening Weekend $27.2 million, Worldwide $256.8 million
- Strange World (2022): Budget ~$160 million, Opening Weekend $12.1 million, Worldwide $73.6 million
- Wish (2023): Budget ~$185 million, Opening Weekend $19.7 million, Worldwide $255 million
Movies need roughly two and a half times their budget back to profit. It's quite probable these titles after Frozen II mostly didn't earn enough to break even, with Strange World a spectacular and major box office failure! These failures could be tied to various things including COVID effects; plus bad word-of-mouth (like Wish’s 48% Rotten Tomatoes score) Yet Moana 2’s massive projection–more than tripling Encanto’s opening–could seriously change things for Disney. The magnitude alone is what has people seriously hyped!
Our Take: Why Moana 2 Could Be Disney’s Comeback Kid
Those underperforming films after Frozen II were original. However, other reasons impacted this – not merely due to being brand new and without established fanbases. Encanto’s streaming success proved originality is not the entire issue! But that big projection for Moana 2 depends hugely on its connection to that prior successful movie. A new generation of moviegoers is ready to discover a very fun movie; and it also helps Disney plan sequels – Zootopia 2 and Frozen III are already in development! It demonstrates how Disney clearly understood audience’s interest in creating these projects to produce another significant money-maker; adding value by planning and realizing their future revenue streams! These planned and scheduled sequels highlight that Moana 2 really represents just how strongly Disney understood just why certain sequels tend to perform far better.
Conclusion: Get Ready for a Moana-Sized Thanksgiving Treat!
Those early projections are crazy impressive; yet what stands out most about Moana 2 is exactly what makes it successful. The possibility alone, especially if they hit that $100 million mark; makes a serious case for a Disney revival at the box office! And we aren’t even accounting for international earnings! If these predictions prove true, Disney’s future animation projects are also looking surprisingly good, showcasing a great understanding of its fans. It's the perfect family entertainment for that Thanksgiving holiday! This creates plenty of anticipation that would ultimately shape and predict future projects and investment decisions made by studios themselves!
