2024 Election Polls: A Look at the Presidential Race
The 2024 US Presidential election is shaping up to be a real nail-biter! Official polls have Kamala Harris and Donald Trump neck and neck. But, Trump's claiming that "Gambling polls," as he calls them, show him way ahead, like 65% to 35%. Even though he told a group of Christian voters that "great Christians don't gamble," the irony wasn't lost on anyone.
This whole "Gambling polls" thing has really blown up! It's fueled by high-profile legal battles, big names like Elon Musk promoting them, and tons of media coverage.
Election Odds and Polymarket Polls: What are Prediction Markets Saying?
These "gambling polls" are actually prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. These platforms let people bet on who they think will win, not who they want to win. They aren't your typical opinion polls so they often vary slightly in actual information each presents.. They represent those “using head not heart”.
As of Wednesday, Polymarket had Trump at about 67% and Harris at 33%, while Kalshi put Trump at 62% and Harris at 38%. Turns out, even though Trump’s audience may not “gamble” a TONNE are. These Betting platforms are seeing way more action than ever before and even mainstream iPhone apps rank above things like NYT currently!
Betting Odds President: Are These Odds Reliable?
The big question is, can we trust these numbers?! Some experts think so but only provided, “a bet made responsibly.” Some bettors might think they know what happening others say “polls also get easily distorted in markets lacking Betting caps like on Polysmarket for example too.” This election will definitively be an epic experiment that’s testing out just how reliable the results of betting markets will ultimately become when trying using such prediction-tools.
PrevioUS election outcomes gave reasonably accurate probabilities for both Clinton who lost Presidency (while still out-voting Trump across US in popular totals) too which “prediction markets got roughly correct” while later Biden similarly during “his lead projections rather” before official election vote counting. Now everyone wants check too after seeing this recent surge too!. Like many times, its always interesting how past events, which during such events even at “national voting scales initially don’t necessarily catch huge, wide mainstream, interest suddenly “picks attention more even on mass broadcast mediums after sufficiently many social mentions” rather than needing immediate official “report-back announcements even. Ultimately both groups eventually discover too for most who actually ever care across some large enough audience.
US Election Polls and 2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Beyond the White House
It’s not just presidential candidates either – these predictions apply further!. Think betting on senate composition or federal rate action within following “election weeks”. Crazy!. They seem like trying to emulate certain specific investment types by creating an entire election specific alternative market there also by having created multiple betting options where anyone from individual investor-speculator, which already also engage with this platform currently too now can gamble or institutional players (provided through appropriate official regulated access provided rather).
The funny thing too around these market designs ultimately boils further toward that very small seemingly obvious difference that otherwise even those politically highly, politically-inclined either may fail “seeing” or noticing despite knowing “implicitly through some experience across elections throughout their voting lifespan.” Rather that these systems function based on winning possibility instead around which is favored or desired.. That difference means each participant “casts opinion based differently upon other data-points entirely as Crane mentions now as this becomes further publicized as more folks use apps too.” Unlike most other markets in economics rather than purely politically or “election oriented which otherwise this operates identically. Rather they now include polling data-sets too which provide insights previously hidden to such individual small time betting-enthusiasts.
Election Betting, and US Elections 2024: What’s at Stake?
Here, despite increasingly widespread mistrust also for traditional reporting platforms these results matter as more begin actively engaging here too also in response.. Many even claim “traditional reporting increasingly reflects personal leanings rather than simply delivering factual content and now in having many such systems in place rather, where none previously got considered with this degree of scrutiny” now has forced each across various regulatory bodies also in trying finding best approaches into regulation also as they must also maintain proper compliance checks to not only new markets now becoming so heavily speculated from millions also, but maintain some basic consistency as increasingly other markets follow after too.
Regulators still not happy with this wild wild west also for those prediction markets which explains several CFTC battles but now after a few court rulings now such bets, at least during temporary election season period seem like ok after courts now sided towards individual speculators who betted on certain “election outcomes previously after enough sufficient evidence was now supplied before courts now overturning CFTC who previously attempted banning.
